7/28/2005

Another bullish day today. This market just keep on chucking along and I keep on shorting and getting slammed hard. My mstr announced superb earnings and it is up big in ah and I'm down -10/share. This is not good for me at all. I'll have to watch the action tomorrow and just get the heck out of dodge . Basically, July has been terrible for my confidence and portfolio, while the market is having the best July in 7-8 yrs. However, today I shorted amzn near mid day and it moved up higher. I just don't like how this market is just moving up like it is 1999 all over again. Even, my affx after announcing terrible earnings and guidance moved up 3.8%, it just doesn't make sense. One thing for sure, at least 75% of earnings should be out by tomorrow and the slide should start next week. There will be nothing left over to fuel this huge rally. As for now, I'm quite disappointed in my performance this month.

Trades: none
Current unrealized g/l:
sbux +1/share
wtw -5.6/share
cbh +3/share
mstr -10/share
vrsn +2.00/share
amzn -1/share
affx -.03/share

7/26/2005

A bullish day today. Even in the news of lower confidence numbers. Well tomorow's oil inventory and durable goods number should move the market. As for my positions, it it did quite well, except for mstr. Someone is continuing to push it up in anticipation of better earnings news? Well they better exceed top, bottom , and side line numbers for this baby to go any higher than 72!! I watched amzn, in the after hour and was very surprise of how all the investors just kept on buying. The earnings was ok and projections ok, but why the big run up. I'm thinking a lot of people missed the boat on ebay and they weren't going to miss this one either. I'm thinking of shorting it if it moves above 43. Also, watched insp got slaughter for lower guidance, will buy if it goes to 21 or 20.

Trades: none
Current unrealized g/l:
wtw -2.00/share
cbh +2.60/share
mstr -4.50/share
vrsn +2.00/share
affx -1.87/share

7/25/2005

Another bearish day on mid size volume. A bit quite today since it is a Monday and not many big announcement. But, this week should be volatile due to a large volume of earnings, economic numbers ( consumer confident, michigan sentiment, gdp, durable good) and month end window dressing shenanigan by institutional investors. As for the day, I just watched my current position and rimm. RIMM is starting to be attractive again I will buy some if it hits 66, and average down if it goes lower. In the after hour action I watched nflx's spectacular earnings, however, it retraced a bit which got me concern and held back into buying. Will see how it runs tomorrow and will initiate long at 18.50 or below. Mstr's earning is Thursday and I just can not wait, it try to run this morning but came back down in the afternoon. This stock will go down or I'll be out of this profession very soon.

Trades: none
Current unrealized g/l:
wtw -2.00/share
cbh +1.85/share
mstr -3.75/share
vrsn +1.80/share
affx -1.87/share

7/21/2005

A bearish day on heavy volume. I thought today was going to be like Wednesday, after Greenspan speak the market rally a bit but didn't have enough juice to go forward. Started out the morning watching rimm, it was definitely a fake out from yesterdays rally. RIMM continues to slowly slide back to the 70 and change. A bit disappointing because if it had closed above 71 , I would have been long. However, I watched vrsn got slaughter and bought at 24. This stock has too much great things to be down +15%. In the after hours, shorted affx at 47, jumped the gun a bit. But it will be down over 25% in the next few days, terrible earnings and guidance. Also, noticed two time in the history of this stock when things are bad, it usually drop between 25-30%. So, I'll be conservative and I'll cover at 43. Tomorrow will be heavy on earnings again and might be a down day with goog down being down.

Trades: long vrsn, short affx
Current unrealized g/l:
wtw -2.00/share
cbh +1.85/share
mstr -4.30/share
vrsn +.50/share
affx -1.00/share

7/20/2005

Wow very bullish day, even in the face of Greenspan's speech on steady increasing rates didn't detour the market. Also, the vix and vxn which are the option volatility gauges for the naz and sp500 are at very historic low levels. Which means to me the market is in heaven and nothing will stop this roaring bull. Also, heard one of the talking heads stated there are still a lot of cash on the sidelines. Today, sold yhoo in the morning for +.05/share, it didn't trend upward as expected. Watched my mstr try to go above 71, but the day is getting very near for the big selloff, or my conviction is dead wrong which I will pay dearly for. In the after hours, ebay up huge, wanted to get in but was too late. FFIV and vrsn was down, however earnings and guidance was ok; sometime I just don't know what the market is looking for in a company. Tomorrow's fomc minutes may spook the market or maybe not, since there is still a large amount of company continuing to report.


Trades: sold yhoo
Current unrealized g/l:
wtw -2.54/share
cbh +2/share
mstr -5.30/share

7/19/2005

A very bullish day today. Wow pretty much everything was up and running. In after hour intc and mot was ok, but yhoo was slammed on ok earnings. As for today, I shorted mstr again as it run up to 70, this is getting to nose bleed level. They better have outrageous earnings next week or it will go down hard. I'll continue to short this stock if it goes above 72. Also, initiate a long on yhoo in the after hours, just cannot resist the heavy crazy sell off. It should move up tomorrow for a point. This week's market movement will be dictated by all the earnings. But, what happens when the earnings are over and the dow, naz, and sp500 are still at there year high? What will be the catalyst for it to move up further?


Trades: add to short for mstr, long yhoo
Current unrealized g/l:
wtw -2.54/share
cbh +1.51/share
mstr -5/share
yhoo +.10/share

7/18/2005

The first slightly bearish day, with light volume. Kind of slow day for me today. Just watched my longs on cbh and my shorts on mstr. I still think mstr is very over priced, it has run up due to the fact the company bought back shares. So what, I want to see real financial numbers to justify the run up. The earnings better be good by next Thurs. or down it will go back to the upper 60's.


Trades: none
Current unrealized g/l:
wtw -2.54/share
cbh +0.51/share
mstr -3.41/share

7/14/2005

Another slightly bullish day on heavy volume. Maybe the bulls are starting to slow down since almost all the stocks are at all time high. Today, I panic when the tame cpi numbers came out and the builders were running. I quickly dumped all my builders for a -2/share for kbh and -1/share for tol. If I was more patient and not let the market spooked me out, all of todays losses were have been GAINS. Ironically, I was discipline enough to exit when it hit my target exit prices. So I'm a bit frustrated at my exit system. However, made money on cbh, was watching it in the morning and listen to the conference call; bought it, it is up +1.10/share so far. Also, shorted mstr at 62.96, very heavily manipulated because it ran up 2 points in about 30 minutes near the end of the day. The news was ok, not spectacular,I'm thinking it must be option expiration that is moving this stock. Will definitely short more tomorrow if it moves above 66. Will watch rimm to see if it test the 74.50 level which I will short, there is too much competition for this stock to be in the mid 70's, upper 60's is more like it. And finally, will watch rf for their earnings and conference call, if I see huge buyers like cbh I'll definitely buy.

Trades: cover tol, jbh, short mstr, long cbh
Current unrealized g/l:
wtw -1.78/share
cbh +1.20/share
mstr -1.60/share

7/13/2005

Today was slightly bullish, the first I've seen for quite a while. I'm just not making any good trades this week so far. I finally cover my cof for a -2/share. I was watching all the other financials making great earnings and then taking off. Which tells me cof will probably do the same and out I went. Still have the builders short, but it is also getting close to my cutoff point. Tomorrow's cpi and ppi should propel the market one way or another. Also, aapl's good number should move the techs. I've also been watching my cash cow rimm, if this goes below 69 I might be coming back home to revisit it.

Trades: cover cof
Current unrealized g/l:
wtw -2.28/share
kbh -1.29/share
tol -0.49/share

7/12/2005

Bullish. Even in the face of higher oil prices. All the bull is just making me short more. Which I did with tol today for a cost basis of 54.15. Cover kyph for a tiny +.30/share, it is just not moving downward even with yesterdays downgraded. Just doesn't sit well with me in a bull market.

Trades: cover kyph, short tol
Current unrealized g/l:
cof -1.65/share
kbh -0.70/share
wtw -2.00/share
tol -0.44/share

7/11/2005

This market continues to be very bullish. Maybe it is the oil coming down, maybe it is the short covering, whatever it I don't care. All my positions are shorts right now. I added to my kbh short and cof short. Also, today I initiated a short on tol 53.96 and kyph at 39.30. I just don't know about the market being this happy and all dandy. I guess this weeks cpi , ppi, and the beginning of earnings will either propel or bring the market back down.

Trades: short tol and kyph
Current unrealized g/l:
cof -1.21/share
kbh -1.85/share
wtw -2.13/share
kyph 0.16/share
tol -0/share

7/7/2005

This market continues to be very bullish. I like how it is slowly chugging along, and doing its own thing. Today cover my tso for a +.10/share, the oil god let me out of this one. Wanted to buy back in but hesitated due to the fact that it didn't move as much as the other oil stocks. Shorted kbh again but this time at 77.91, it continued to moved upward a bit late into the day. These homebuilders are bound for a slight pull back tomorrow. Cof moved upward for no news today, I saw alot of huge buyers in the 10k area. Will watch tomorrow and if it moves higher, cover for a lost. Well this whole week has been miserable for me, just not getting any rhyme going after this holiday.

Trades: cover tso, short kbh
Current unrealized g/l:
cof -1.65/share
kbh -0.60/share
wtw -0.30/share
ovti -1/shareTh

7/6/2005

Finally the market is starting to realize oil is hitting our pocket books. However, I just don't think the bears are out lurking around. This market is still a bull market, because the number of new hi has been oupacing the new lows for weeks now. Today, day traded kbh for +.10/share, didn't like the action at the end ( this homebuilder was up while all the others were down about ~1%) couldn't find any news thus sold near the end to be on the safe side if we jump tomorrow. Will watch again for a short position. Other than this stock, I just watched oil headed upward and the oil stocks taking profit. Tomorrow should be choppy with the oil inventory number and the anticipation of the job numbers.

Trades: daytraded kbh
Current unrealized g/l:
cof +0.03/share
tso -0.50/share
wtw -0.10/share
ovti -0.80/share

7/5/2005

A decent day in the market today after a long holiday. On Friday, shorted tso and vlo the 2 oil refineries because I thought these stock ran up due to the holiday driving and it will come back down on Monday. Was right until the tropical storm started to form on Sunday, man did I dread the open on Monday. Took a -6/share on vlo, it basically wiped out 30% off my gains when I went long in June. This was not a way to start a new month and quarter. Well I continue to be confident that I can get out off this hole by the end of the month because I've been in the red before and came back. As for today, just watched the market forget about the high oil prices and the rally is back on after walmart's great sale in June. Not ready to jump back in the wagon and buy yet because it was just one great month. Still believe the consumers are hurting with oil avg. at around $2.20/gallon. Want to short the retailers like anf and bebe, it has to hurt their sales with the high oil price. Where are these teenagers and college student getting their money to shop if majority of their dollar goes to gasoline, beer, and party in that order. Well this week should be slow, until Friday's job number. Might go long on the oils since it seems the trend continues to move up and with so many storms this early in the summer.

Trades: cover vlo
Current unrealized g/l:
cof +0.65/share
tso -1.50/share
wtw -0.04/share
ovti -0.90/share