9/28/2005

Well the oil shortage panic is upon all the traders again and caused the morning rally to subside. I've continued to short the refineries, and just getting kill on it. The oil bug is also killing my discretionary spending stocks. Still believe this high oil level will stabilize to the upper 50's level. All eyes will be on next week's oil inventory number, because it factors in Rita. I still think there is a build on gasoline and distillate and a short fall on oil.


Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -1.60/share
sbux -2/share
tso -1.25/share
vlo -3/share
rimm +4.5/share

9/26/2005

Wow Rita didn't caused that much of a damage, that is what the market first thought but turn after the 2nd hour. I just don't get it, how flaky the oil traders are with this Rita stuff. Oil and gas shot up today, so I shorted vlo at 112, this stock is just too high and overbought. Sold apc for a -1/share loss, man I'm just getting out too early because it would have been a positive +.36/share, instead. This is the second time I've sold too early, it is just frustrating. I'm banking on the fear subsiding again on the oil sector tomorrow to capitalize on my short.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -0.60/share
sbux -1.50/share
vlo -1/share

9/22/2005

Rita o rita , you are always on our mine. But, today we just seem to shrug it off just abit for a decent rally. Retailers were up which helped my sbux. Also, today I shorted and cover the oil refineries and natural gas companies. So a good day for me on the day trade side, here are the numbers +2.5/share on sun, +0.75/share on tso, loss -2/share on dvn, then went long on apc at $96, and sold my flr for +1.50. On dvn, should not have panic when it was going down because I would have end up with a loss of -.50/share. Well I'm starting to load up on the natural gas companies and short the refineries becuase the oils it just over bought. However, Rita is a very slow moving storm, so just have to wait and see where it goes..

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -1.20/share
sbux -2.10/share
apc +.30/share

9/21/2005

Rita rita let's have a marga 'rita. This hurricane is definitely spooking the market and giving everyone a scare. I don't think it will hit the major oil refineries, will hit further west towards Corpus Chrisit. With that thought I've covered all my refineries and will wait it out to short these hyper refineries again on Monday. Long flr, they are a engineering firm that services the oil/gas companies because there will be definitely damages to the natural gas fields. So basically, I'll long the natural gas, and short the oils.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -1.10/share
sbux -3.75/share
flr -.30/share

9/19/2005

The oil monster is coming back with vengeance, thus for the down market. This took me out of surprise, I didn't think Rita would start to affect us until Wed, after the fed's meeting. So, basically it forced me to covered my shorts on tso for a -6/share and covered half of vlo for -12/share. Either way if it pulls back tomorrow I'll cover the rest and go long. I'm starting to believe Rita will head straight to the Gulf of Mexico's and stir up trouble again. Another thing I saw are the retailers, wow they are getting very cheap, bby, anf, bebe ( these are all great companies but with high oil it is getting a beating). Will just watch my oils and the fed tomorrow.


Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -.65/share
sbux -3.75/share
sun -5/share
vlo -12.5/share

9/15/2005

Bears are still here. Well today was a mixed bag with the cpi number out and all. Nothing much happening. Cover my erts for +2, just what I wanted and predicted. The refineries continued to come back some more, but I don't know how far it will come back to. I'm thinking it is just a sell off for option expiring and the opec meeting next week. Will continue to watch matk, bby, sndk for tomorrow. Sndk came out with news they will be announceing something big on 9/27, what the hell is it? Why would a company pull stunts like this? This will be a pump and dump!!

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -.65/share
sbux -3/share
sun -4/share
vlo -10.5/share
tso -4/share

9/14/2005

Bears are still hanging around, maybe all the way till option expiration on Friday. Liked how the refineries didn't jump even though oil price rally. Which is a good sign that it maybe stabilizing. As for my sbux, just don't know why it is down. It is a discretionary stock and since everyone is spending their disposable income on gas, there is no more left for frapp? Will continue to watch matk, bby, sndk for tomorrow.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -.35/share
sbux -3.25/share
sun -4/share
vlo -13/share
tso -6/share
erts +1.33/share

9/13/2005

Bears are back due to the ppi numbers. But, let's not panic yet because the cpi and retail sales are next. Watched rimm, bby, and erts today. All of these were very volatile today. Shorted erts at 62.22, came down a bit in ah but will exit at 61 or lower. This one is very over bought after yesterday's upgrade. Tomorrow, I'll watch bby, matk , and sndk for day trade purpose only. The oil rally a bit, but kind of stabilize.


Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +.14/share
sbux -2.20/share
sun -4/share
vlo -13/share
tso -6/share
erts 0.33/share

9/12/2005

Mixed day today, probably everyone waiting for the cpi , ppi , retail sales, and prelim to the sentiment data due out this week. Well at least the oils are starting to retreat, maybe everyone was listening to Steve Forbe's bs on $35-40 oil in 10-12 month. I see a pull back to $55-60, not $35-40 and then everyone will start to jump back in. Anyway , Forbes must have a bigger short position then I do on the oil sector for this ridiculous prediction. Tomorrow, will watch bby (earnings)and amzn ( ran up today , no news, probably due to oil price being down).


Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +.35/share
sbux -1.75/share
sun -5/share
vlo -12/share
tso -6/share

9/8/2005

A bearish day today. Well at least my refineries are starting to stabilize a bit. Intel came out with not that great of a mid quarter announcement, so it might be a down day for the naz tomorrow. Didn't notice anything for tomorrow except for the huge sell off on matk after hour. I'll also watch all the homebuilders for an entry point.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +.35/share
kmx -1.3/share
sbux -2.25/share
sun -6/share
vlo -13/share
tso -4.5/share

9/7/2005

Another bullish rally today. Once again I'm getting squeezed by the oil refineries. I'm waiting for tomorrow for the oil inventory and decide will I dump and go long. Everything is pointing for these refineries to go higher, even the ceo's of these companies are projecting better gross margin all the way to 2006. I'm definitely swimming against the current. What I'm afraid of is, after I covered and go long these stock will start to tank!!!

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +1/share
kmx -.90/share
sbux -2.25/share
sun -6.5/share
vlo -12.5/share
tso -4.5/share

9/6/2005

Great rally today for everyone. The oil being down didn't help my shorts on the refineries because another upgrade from another firm. When will these refineries go back to their normal price?? Well, I'm getting to the cover point again on my shorts, they are just squeezing me. Is this rally for real or just a sucker rally? I think it is a sucker rally because energy price is still high. How can the market move higher with high energy price? Tomorrow, I'll watch shfl, great earnings and guidance.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -1/share
kmx -1.10/share
sbux -1.77/share
sun -6.5/share
vlo -11/share
tso -3/share

9/5/2005

Well tomorrow should be a bullish day because the oil futures close 2 dollar lower on the London exchanges. This should help my refinery shorts a bit. As for the week goes ism numbers, wholesales, and the import/export number should move the market. But, besides these it should be another slow week.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -1/share
kmx -.1.33/share
sbux -1.56/share
sun -5/share
vlo -11/share
tso -0.05/share

9/1/2005

First day of the new month and the market is mixed. Which is a good sign in the face of higher energy prices. As for myself, I'm not doing good at all, since lehman upgraded the refineries I'm even in bigger lost then ever. But, still holding it until the senses get back to everyone and the reversal should begin. As for my emotions, starting to get nervous because already down and it is the first day of the month. Will have to wait and see, any hint by next week of a reverse I'll stay put, if not I'll take another big lost.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -1/share
kmx -.1.3324/share
sbux -1.56/share
sun -7.11/share
vlo -12/share
tso -2/share