11/30/2005

Last day of the month and it ended down. But, I would worry if it continue the upward movement without any consolidation. Didn't went long on the oil and gas even though I knew there wasn't going to be any drawdown. But, it is just those confidence thing I'm still trying to work on for myself. Tomorrow's gas number should be down, but majority of the natural gas companies has ran up already in anticipation of this, so maybe a sell on the news tomorrow. However, if it doesn't sell on the news I'll short it here. For tomorrow, I'll just watch the natural gas and the retailers for any play.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -.50/share
ice -4.00/share
sndk +1.00/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
+0/share
+0/share

11/29/2005

A fake rally in the morning then it all went down hill. Still believe the rally is alive and well all the way to the year end then it may do down hill from there. The bulls are still running the fields. I wanted to buy all the natural gas and oils today, but it ran up too fast on me. However, the oils gave back a bit at the end. All the talking heads expect a build on oil, but I'm gambling it will be a drawdown because of the Thanksgiving driving to grandma house theory. If the oils drop before the inventory numbers, I'll buy and bet big on it.


Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -.60/share
ice -4.20/share
sndk +1.50/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
+0/share
+0/share

11/28/2005

Finally a pull back after several days of run up. The thing now is will the sentiment change, since we didn't hit the dow 11,000 or is this just a resting period before further advancement? Today since the oil/gas sold off, I covered dvn for +3/share. Throughout the day I wanted to buy back in all the natural gas because it has gotten fairy value now. Sold half my position of sndk for +2/share, will dump the rest at 54. Tomorrow, I'll continue to watch the oil/gas for long opportunities. The inventory I suspect will be a drawdown due to the low oil price several people took the opportunity to drive instead of flying. Also, the cold front last week should draw down the natural gas numbers coming out on Thursday. Also on Thurs. I'll watch the retailers for short opportunities( bby, amzn, and anf ).

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -.60/share
ice -3/share
sndk +2/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
+0/share
+0/share

11/28/2005

Finally a pull back after several days of run up. The thing now is will the sentiment change, since we didn't hit the dow 11,000 or is this just a resting period before further advancement? Today since the oil/gas sold off, I covered dvn for +3/share. Throughout the day I wanted to buy back in all the natural gas because it has gotten fairy value now. Sold half my position of sndk for +2/share, will dump the rest at 54. Tomorrow, I'll continue to watch the oil/gas for long opportunities. The inventory I suspect will be a drawdown due to the low oil price several people took the opportunity to drive instead of flying. Also, the cold front last week should draw down the natural gas numbers coming out on Thursday. Also on Thurs. I'll watch the retailers for short opportunities( bby, amzn, and anf ).

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -.60/share
ice -3/share
sndk +2/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
+0/share
+0/share

11/22/2005

Another decent late day rally. In anticipation the oil/gas inventory number, I shorted dvn at 62.35 and br at 74.03, all of these at the close of the day. The reasoning is the low volume, the high runup the past few days, and it looks like an evening star is emerging on the candlestick charts. Today, sold apc for +3.30/share and added more to ice for a cost of 37.20. The bulls continue to move it higher and higher all the way to Christmas? Maybe, maybe not.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +.10/share
ice -2.20/share
sndk -0.50/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
br +0.00/share
dvn +0/share

11/21/2005

Decent Monday rally. The bulls are still in control, but it gets more and more tighter to move higher. This week should be slow due to the holiday. The day I will look for is Wednesday's oil and gas inventory, but I'm not sure will the volume be there. This week's inventory should be a draw down on all three ( oil,gasoline, and distillate) due to the low gas more people are just driving like crazy. Natural gas should be a bit lower due to the first strong cold front last week.
On Friday, I bought apc on the cold front run at 87.89. The oil should come down a bit to 55 before I start to buy it. Bought sndk at 50.08, a bit high ,but the sell off on the intel-micron news is a bit too much. Will add to my position if it dips below 45. Finally got rid of my last short of wfmi for a +.10/share, this market is making all the shorts very nervous.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +.30/share
ice -2.10/share
sndk -3.10/share
apc +2.30/share

11/17/2005

Rally today, but on the behalf of oil going down. Anyway this market will continue to move higher next week, after tomorrow's option expiration. I heard one of the talking head stated that this option expiration is the first in 5 year with the index moving upward. The big boys still have alot of money on the side ( according to ici about 1.997trillion in money market fund, the highest in 4 week) and they need to deploy it. With the pending to the moon move, I cleared most of my shorts today. Covered aapl for -10/share, br +0.05/share, and dvn +0.50/share. I covered the natural gas after the tepid inventory number. I expected a bit more then 52mbtu, but will watch again tomorrow to go long. Believe the oils will come down, the natural gas will go much higher because of this first cold front is a psychological factor. ICE dropped in the late afternoon probably in sympathy with the oil/gas dropping, so I added more to my position. Tomorrow, will just sit and watch because of option expiration.



Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +.10/share
ice -2.8/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
wfmi -1.00/share

11/16/2005

PPI, CPI, and the oil inventory can't drive this market higher. So how about tomorrow's housing starts and Friday's expiration? This market definitely wants to move up higher but when is the question. Today, sold bcsi in the morning for +1.25/share a quick pick and dump, covered rimm for +1/share, and covered sun for ---.40/share right after the high oil inventory. In the afternoon, started to short the natural gas: br 69.85 and dvn 58.25 because the oil inventory numbers showed a high distillate number. So high distillate should transform into a high gas inventory for tomorrow. Also, went long on ice, the natural gas/oil exchange ipo today. This ipo was very similar to bot's ipo ( closed near the low of the day, but rally big for 3 straight days after that). The thing about ipo is that I have no technical to follow, so it can go both ways very quickly. I'll see how aapl move tomorrow and I'll hang my head and cover the rest of it.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -.10/share
ice +.40/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
br -0.05/share
dvn -0.75/share
aapl -10/share
wfmi +.20/share

11/15/2005

Another lackluster day, with just a bit of profit taking in the afternoon. This bull market is still very strong and getting stronger. But somehow, I'm continuing to short a few securities. Initiate a short on wfmi, as stated yesterday this stock I've been watching just closed the gap today and backoff. Which is a good sign, that the strength is almost gone, so I shorted at 143.89 in the morning hours. Will probably come down tomorrow. Cover half my aapl for -8/share, the market continues to push this baby higher and I had enough of it. In the after hour, bought bcsi at 40.25 for a bounce tomorrow. This stock announced earnings in the ah and it was ok, but the guidance was weak. Down over 15% is not justifiable in a bull market, will sell at 41.50. Oil and the cpi for tomorrow, inventory should be a huge build all around, if not that will send the oils up and the market down. So there shouldn't be any surprise to rally the market except for cpi.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +0.40/share
bcsi -0.75/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
rimm -1.50/share
aapl -8/share
sun +.30/share
wfmi -0.60/share

11/14/2005

Boring, boring, ....zzzz boring day. Everyone is just waiting for tomorrow's ppi, then Wednesday's cpi and oil inventory numbers. I watched wfmi for the most part of the day and wanted to short it near the end but backed out of it. This stock has a lot of stamina to drop in the morning, then slowly crawls itself up for a +1 gain. Just amazing buying powers at the end, but will watch again tomorrow to see if the strength is still there, if not I'll be a shorter. Whole portfolio is down today, but continue to hold all my shorts because the consolidation should be coming soon.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +1.10/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
rimm -1.30/share
aapl -7.40/share
sun -1.20/share

11/11/2005

A decent follow through today, however, all the index are above their resistance. It will become choppy from here, will it go further? It will probably consolidate on Mon or Tuesday, it just needs time to breathe. Well today, sold vlo for +.85/share, tso for +.50/share, and apc for +.25/share. Apc pissed me off because it ran further up after the midday. It started out week in the morning and didn't follow the other gas, so I thought it will retreat further that was the reason to bail out early. The oil per barrel probably will test the 55 level now, since it hit below 57.50 intraday trading. So with that thought, I shorted sun at 73.36 at the end of the day.
Also, added to my short on rimm to a cost basis of 65.99. Will probably drop next week for the option expiration and the run has been excessive. Next week there are many economic numbers for the market to chew on: cpi, ppi, housing start, and option expiration.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +1.20/share
rimm -.80/share
aapl -7.40/share
sun -.05/share

11/10/2005

Huge rally today, but due to a Treasury auction?? It doesn't make sense to me at all. Will there be any follow through tomorrow? I don't think it so, all the index closed above some key technical ( 10600 dow, 1230 spx, and 2180 naz) already, so further movement requires major catalyst and not some silly auction. Today was another busy day for me, cover sun for +4.8/share after the gas inventory came out I was outta there. Then sold my rimm for +2.8/share, this one had leg at the end to closed even higher, if I would have waited would have gotten another 2 points. Since oil/barrel reached 57.50 intra day I started to gobble up some oil refineries and 1 gas company. Bought vlo at 95.86, tso 53.25, and apc 85.25, did not expected oil to slide further late in the day, but will buy tomorrow it it goes further. All these oil/gas are at pre-Katrina/Rita level, it is too great of an opportunity. Also, shorted rimm at 65.45, didn't see it run this high, but I believe the boost was due to the market and not any new news about the litigation. So tomorrow the oil/gas again.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +1.50/share
rimm -.15/share
aapl -7/share
vlo -.50/share
tso -.04/share
apc -.65/share

11/9/2005

Another quiet mixed day today in the market. The market is reacting to just anything that will help it move up or down. For example, this morning's run was due to the oil executive's testimony and the afternoon meltdown was due to the Jordan issues. Nothing that usually affect the market is affecting the market. There are no substantial cats to move it up/down. So with that said, this is just a trading market until we can get some footing. Today, sold pixar as stated yesterday at 55 for +1.33/share, which it ran further up to close at 56.59. Well didn't know it had that much further to run, but will short it if it moves above 58. Covered sun for +1.13/share , then as it moved up after the inventory number I shorted it at 75.70, near the high of the day, lucky me. The oil stock should continue to decline, I won't buy until a barrel of oil hits below 57.50. Bought rimm, due to the court not given it a stay, so the only way is a settlement. Bought at 61.20, if it drops below 60, I'll double up, because it will go up once the settlement is announced. Lastly, covered sndk for +6/share, I'm done shorting this stock, it is very volatile it can move up and down in a few days, just got lucky shorting at the top. In the after hour, watched wfmi and wanted to short it, but my target was not hit. So that is all my trades for today. Tomorrow will watch rimm, wfmi, and all the oil/gas.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +1.60/share
rimm +0.10/share
sun +2/share
aapl -6/share

11/08/2005

Another quiet mixed day today in the market. The media is blaming toll brothers' announcement on lower demand, but it is just lack of cats ( catalyst) out there to motivate any buyers. Shorted sun today at 73.25, a bit too early in the day, however, oil moved back at the end. Tomorrow, it should go lower with the inventory number. Also, bought pixr in the after hour, it was too good to resist. Great earnings and they are talking with Disney on distribution which should finish soon. Bought at 53.67, should run up to 55 and I'm outta here in the morning. Will continue to watch the oil/gas tomorrow.

Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +1.10/share
sndk +3/share
pixr +0.10/share
sun -0.50/share
aapl -6/share

11/7/2005

Wow I haven't updated my blog for quite awhile. But, I'm back and ready to rumble. Well the market continues to be very bullish, but what will be the catalyst to move it further? I believe it will move up a bit more (dow 10600,spx 1230, and naz 2180)and then consolidate a bit and range trade till the end of the year. I know it will disappoint all the bulls that wants a huge rally in the 4th quarter. But, I just don't think so, since this is the 4th year of the bull and it is starting to run out of steam. What I'm watching these days are the oil/gas, it has come down significantly and will continue to come down as the temperature cools and the anticipated cold winter doesn't come along. If oil comes to 57.50/barrel and gas goes below 11/mbtu, I'll be a buyer.


Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn +1/share
sndk +3/share
aapl -6/share