1/31/2006

The market finished a bit lower after the fomc decided to raised another 25bp. Covered my bebe for +.20/share, that was pitiful but it just didn't have any sellers today for me to hold onto it till tomorrow. Watched goog in the after hours, wanted to jump in, but it just moved so quickly. Goog continues to be very strong and has very positive sentiment surrounding it. I'll watch how it trade tomorrow if it falls a bit I'll long it.

Longs unrealized g/l:
dvn +5/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
tso -6/share

1/30/2006

Mixed market with huge interest in the energy and tech sectors. I guess everyone is waiting for tomorrow's big Tuesday events. I sold short bebe at 20.50, it will probably come down to the lower 19ish level tomorrow. This stock had a great run the past few days after earning, but over 25% in 3 days is a no brainer short for me. No trading for me tomorrow due to all the events that will happen, will probably cover bebe if it touches 19.

Longs unrealized g/l:
dvn +5/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
bebe +.50/share
tso -6/share

1/27/2006

This market continues to be very bullish in the face of poor economic data. The earnings from a few Dow bellwethers is propping this market up. Today, cover the rest of my sndk, this stock continues to be very volatile and will not die off completely. Daytraded brcm for +3/share, yesterday's 25% after hour gain was too easy for all the longs to take profit and the shorts to come out to play. Next week is a very big news event week, we have opec, fomc, the state of union address, job numbers, and the UN security council to meet all happening. So it should be fun to see how the market digest all these informations.

Longs unrealized g/l:
dvn +3/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
tso -4/share

1/26/2006

Finally, finally, finally the earnings for sndk came out and the stock dropped like a hot potato. I covered 2/3 of it for an average gain of +4/share and will hold the remaining to see how the big boys respond to the decent earnings. Also, daytraded vlo for +1/share, after watching the refineries bounce after the NG inventory number vlo was the last to bounce so it was a no brainer on this 1 point gain. In the after hour, I daytraded brcm after its spectacular earnings, I shorted at 70.20 and cover at 68.25 for a +1.95/share. The earnings was a blow out, but being up 25% in after hour was what you call greedy exuberant. It should come down 1-3 dollar tomorrow. Great day for me and onward to tomorrow's 4Q GDP numbers.

Longs unrealized g/l:
dvn +2.5/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk +4/share
tso -3/share

1/25/2006

The market is in a stand still right now. I'm quite surprised the market didn't jump when the oil retreated today. It seems as though the sector rotation is staring to moved out of the housing/energy and moving into the financials/tech. Nothing tomorrow, maybe look at the NG inventory number, but I'm more excited about vrsn's earnings after hour.

Longs unrealized g/l:
dvn +3/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -4/share
tso -3/share

1/24/2006

This week I'm just laying low for my sndk earnings to come out. I'm starting to get nervous how it rebounded from Friday's option selloff. The bullish sentiment is very strong so it will need a terrible guidance to move it below the 68 threshold. But, I'll see how the earnings come out before making my decision.

Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +5/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -8/share
tso -4/share

1/20/2006

Finally the tech's are consolidating, but will it continue next week? I hope it will continue next week after Texas Instruments announcement on Monday, because I want sndk to come back to the lower 60's before there earnings on Thurs. A decent day for me since I'm still short onthe market. However, this Iran situation is the monkey in the room running around causing chaos. I just don't know what the main factor for today 's selloff, but I still think the bulls are running the show. Next week should reveal everything because about another 33% of the s&p 500 companies will announce and should either justify or debunk that earning is slowing down theory.

Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +4/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -3/share
tso -5/share

1/19/2006

Decent rise today after a couple day of consolidation. The oil/NG inventory came in and I thought it was bearish for the oils and bullish for the NG. However, Osama had to released some darn statement about truce and destroying us and up goes the oils. I feel like there is always a wrench thrown into the oils to keep it going higher and higher. The earnings coming in so far has been good, but the guidance so far has been flat. I can understand that not many CEO would want to raise guidance for Q1 since seasonally it is a slow quarter and the Fed still haven't finished raising rates. I'll probably not do much tomorrow and just watch the market jiggle since option expires.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +5/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -6/share
tso -5/share

1/18/2006

The market continues to be in a nervous state with the Iran and the Japan stock exchange troubles. Finally, the oil traders took profit today to help me out on tso. Sndk came down then up, but tonight's aaple and ebay's guidance was weak sending it down after hour. Sndk should be trading the low 60's, this stock was hyped up in the new year and followed the naz up. Once again these hyped up tech stocks are getting hammer if they do not guide higher. So tomorrow's oil inventory should be a non issue since, Iran is holding the cards right now. Unless there is a drawdown in inventory which will be a huge shock to everyone.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +3/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -4/share
tso -4/share

1/17/2006

Everybody...Iran Iran Iran.. it is in everyone's mind. What to do when they hold the ace card and we need their oil. Whatever happens it is helping out my sndk, but not my tso. Sndk took another dive today with another downgrade and it even try to moved back up later in the afternoon. In the after hour the big boys (intc, yhoo, and ibm)did not have any great news for 06. Their revenue was either flat or slightly down and they are selling hard in the after hours. This will be great news for my sndk tomorrow, hopefully it will cause more longs to take profit before Friday's option expiration. Tomorrow, there is apple and ebay to announce and it will be wild and crazy because they better beat and guide higher!

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +4/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -4/share
tso -5/share

1/13/2006

Decent Friday the 13 to me and a decent week overall for all the indices. Finally some sense is being knock to all the sandisk holders. It took the second downgrade to bring this big boy down, more downgrades should follow due to valuation. This Iran nuclear program is pumping up all the oil stocks which is not good for my shorts on tso. But, I know everything will resolve itself and oil should be back to a healthy 55-60/barrel. Next week should be the first big week of earnings reports so hold on to your seats. Big boys such as, Apple, ebay, motorola,yahoo,and intel should move the market. A long weekend is upon us and my first year of blogging is done.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +2/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -8/share
tso -4/share

1/11/2006

This market continues to have resilient. Whether it is new money, late money, or foreign money, it continues to move up point by point. The oil inventory was very bearish, but all the oil stock was flat at the close. I just do not get this, maybe the Iranian nuclear trouble is making all the traders want to buy on the dip. Tomorrow, lets see how the natural gas number will affect the market since the oil number didn't move it much. The market continues to move higher, which does not bode well for my shorts, until the earnings come out that is when all the truth will be reveal. It is not that these company will not beat the Q4 numbers, but will they guide higher for Q1 and beyond is the question. Until then, my capital is quite dead.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +2/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -11/share
tso -2/share

1/10/2006

A flat day today, nothing much moved after the 5 day of bull run. Tomorrow will be the oil inventory number and it should affect the oil stocks.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +2.80/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -11/share
tso -2/share

1/9/2006

It's time to celebrate because the Dow is above 11k. Wow, it took over 4.7 years to reach back that level. But, if you are a short like myself, you are booing and hissing at this rally. I'll continue to short sndk and tso because their price doesn't reflect their value. This run up is caused by new money coming in and also all the late players trying to play catchup. Currently, I'm being roasted at the stake, not burn yet. Will see how this whole week plays out since the ppi and export/import number will come out this week. Also, earning announcements should be in full mode next week.


Longs Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +2.80/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -11/share
tso -2/share

1/6/2006

The market continues to chug higher and higher, all the indices are in multi year high mode. However, what scares me is that it is doing it in the first 4 day of the year and that is just too quick for me. Also, people pumping google all the way to $2000 is just fanning the buying frenzy. So I'm still bearish on my sndk and tso. Today continue to add to my short on tso (cost 65.60) and sndk (cost 64.82). These two stock is at or way above their 52 wk high and there is no significant news I can find to justify their high price. Even though I'm in the red big time, I just believe the common sense will come back into these two high flyer.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +3.00/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -8.4/share
tso -2.20/share

1/5/2006

Mixed day in the market today after the announcement of all the NG/oil inventory numbers. The oil numbers was expected, but the NG was a build. It seems as though the weather was much warmer then anticipated. With that data, sold apc for +1.5/share and still hold onto dvn. Will see how the market react to tomorrow's job number. SNDK, this steroid stock continues to move upward on no significant earnings news, just introduction of new product in the Las Vegas's consumer electronic show. This stock is getting very over value, but it moves higher because the shorts are forced to cover. I'll continue to short all the way into earnings on Jan 25. A bit surprised that oil didn't retrace with the bearish inventory number. The smart money somehow are moving out of NG and coming back to oil, which doesn't make sense to me with the high build in inventory. However, I think they are looking it longterm that oil will be great in their portfolios. Tomorrow the job number, which will be a non event because all the jobs are holiday related.


Longs Current unrealized g/l:
dvn +2.00/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -5/share
tso -.30/share

1/4/06

A very decent volume and follow through day from yesterday. Everything is starting to look good, but it is not helping my short on sndk. Today, I sold my vrsn for a -1.50/share, I had this baby for about 3 month and it just moved sideway, today was my last straw because the past two day the naz rallied and this stock just sank like the titanic with no news. Never like when a stock doesn't move with the market and with no news. The natural gas stock rally, but the NG future sank lower. The oil sector also rise, but it was near the last hour when the buyers came in. Believe everyone is waiting for tomorrow's inventory number to commit to their positions. Tomorrow, I'll see how the stocks react to the inventory number then I'll just wait for the job number on Friday.


Longs Current unrealized g/l:
apc +3.60/share
dvn +3.30/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -3.70/share
tso -.80/share

1/3/06

Wow what a way to bring in the new year. Hopefully this rally can continue to the end of the week. I do not know why the oil rally today. Was it the Russia problem, anticipated storm, or just a bunch of managers putting some dough to work? Shorted tso at 64.70, this stock broke out of the 62 range, but it has gone up too much too fast and should fall back tomorrow. If it does not retrace, I'll short more at 66. And what happen to sndk, this stock is definitely manipulated, it may touch 70 tomorrow on no news whatsoever. I did add to my short, which makes it 64.07 now. Will continue to watch the oil/gas this week and sndk.

Longs Current unrealized g/l:
vrsn -1/share
apc +2.85/share
dvn +2.30/share

Shorts Current unrealized g/l:
sndk -3.70/share
tso -.30/share